Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics 1st Edition by Christian Hofstadler, Markus Kummer ISBN 9783030640132 3030640132

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Product details:

ISBN 10: 3030640132
ISBN 13: 9783030640132
Author: Christian Hofstadler, Markus Kummer

Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics 1st Edition Table of contents:

1 Introduction

1.1 Production System and Processes

1.1.1 Applying the Trapezoidal Model in Construction Management

1.1.2 Efficiency and Effectiveness

1.1.3 Accuracy, Distortion, and Spread

1.1.4 Complexity of Systems

1.1.5 Uncertainties in Systems

1.2 Objective

1.3 Structure

1.4 Target Audiences

1.5 Summary

1.6 References

2 Basics

2.1 Chance and Risk

2.1.1 Etymology

2.1.2 General Language

2.1.3 Usage in Business and Economics

2.1.4 Usage in Construction Economics

2.1.5 Usage of the Concepts of Chance and Risk in this Book

2.1.6 Selection of the Reference Base

2.2 Assumptions Regarding the Future

2.3 Terminology in Statistics and Probability Theory

2.3.1 Stochastics

2.3.2 Random Variable

2.3.3 Distribution

2.3.4 Histogram

2.3.5 Location Parameters

2.3.6 Variance

2.3.7 Standard Deviation

2.3.8 Quantile Values and Ranges

2.3.9 Central Limit Theorem

2.3.10 Correlation and Correlation Coefficients

2.3.11 Historical Data

2.4 Summary

2.5 References

3 Data, Information, Knowledge, and BIM

3.1 Types of Knowledge

3.1.1 Implicit and Explicit Knowledge

3.1.2 Subjective and Objective Knowledge

3.1.3 Individual, Collective, and Organizational Knowledge

3.1.4 Contextualized and Decontextualized Knowledge

3.2 General Considerations on Documentation and Knowledge Expansion

3.3 Flow of Information

3.4 Information and Data Quality

3.4.1 Methods of Acquiring Information

3.4.2 Information Asymmetry

3.5 Systematic Knowledge Management

3.6 Data and Information for BIM

3.6.1 Principles of BIM Models

3.6.2 Targets of BIM Models in the Project, Use, and Operation Processes

3.7 Summary

3.8 References

4 Management of Chances and Risks

4.1 Management of Chances and Risks in Accordance with ISO 31000

4.2 Situational Analysis with Respect to Chance and Risk Behavior

4.2.1 Chance and Risk Behavior in Construction Companies

4.2.2 Chance and Risk Behavior and Competitive Intensity

4.3 Chance and Risk Policy

4.4 Macro- and Micro-Analysis

4.4.1 Macro-Analysis – Organizational Level

4.4.2 Micro-Analysis – Project Level

4.5 Chance and Risk Management Process

4.5.1 Analysis and Synthesis of Chances and Risks

4.5.2 Optimization of Chances and Risks

4.5.3 Monitoring of Chances and Risks

4.5.4 Documentation of Chances and Risks

4.5.5 Reflection on Chances and Risks

4.6 Summary

4.7 References

5 Applying the Management of Chances and Risks to Project Phases

5.1 Phases of a Construction Project

5.2 Using Tools and Methods of Chance and Risk Management in Project Phases

5.3 Costs of Buildings/Structures – Cost Funnel – Contingencies

5.4 Summary

5.5 References

6 The Fundamentals of Monte Carlo Simulations

6.1 Origins and Evolution of the Method

6.2 Distinction between Method and Simulation

6.2.1 Monte Carlo Method

6.2.2 Simulation

6.2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation

6.2.4 Scenario vs. Iteration

6.2.5 Areas of Application

6.3 Generation of Random Numbers

6.3.1 Sampling Methods

6.3.2 Number of Iterations

6.4 Distribution Functions

6.4.1 Influence of the Shape of Distribution Functions

6.4.2 Influence of the Skewness of Distribution Functions

6.5 Correlations

6.5.1 Correlations in the Literature on Construction Management and Economics

6.5.2 Influence of Correlations

6.6 Comparison – Deterministic and Probabilistic Calculations

6.6.1 Critical Review of Deterministic Calculations

6.6.2 SWOT Analysis for Monte Carlo Simulations

6.7 Summary

6.8 References

7 Application of Monte Carlo Simulations

7.1 Selection of Distribution Functions

7.1.1 Theoretical Considerations Based on Known or Assumed Characteristics

7.1.2 Gathering Empirical Data

7.1.3 Combination of Data Collection Methods

7.2 Data Fitting

7.2.1 Labor Consumption Rates

7.2.2 Quantity Deviations

7.3 Identifying Correlations

7.3.1 Total Labor Consumption Rate of Reinforced Concrete Operations

7.3.2 Expert Survey Results

7.3.3 Effects of Correlations on the Total Labor Consumption Rate of Reinforced Concrete Operations

7.4 Interpretation of Simulation Results

7.4.1 Histograms

7.4.2 Tornado Diagrams

7.4.3 Scatter Plots

7.4.4 Spider Diagrams

7.5 Summary

7.6 References

8 Influence of Project Lead Time and Construction Time on Project Targets

8.1 System of Targets for Construction Projects

8.2 Project Lead Time and Project Targets

8.3 Productivity and Production System

8.3.1 Production System

8.3.2 Labor Consumption Rates

8.4 Influence of Construction Time on Planning Processes

8.5 Significance of Construction Time

8.5.1 Significance for Construction Management

8.5.2 Significance for Construction Economics

8.5.3 Significance for Quality

8.5.4 Significance for Construction Process Disruptions

8.5.5 Legal Significance

8.6 Specification of Construction Time

8.6.1 Significance of Construction Time for the Construction Contract

8.6.2 Definitions of Construction Time

8.6.3 Consequences for the Client

8.7 Credible Construction Time

8.8 Influence of Construction Time on Productivity

8.8.1 Construction Time and Losses of Productivity

8.8.2 Comparison with Pertinent Literature

8.9 Summary

8.10 References

9 Worked Examples – Client

9.1 Project Phase 1 (PPH 1)

9.1.1 Developer Costing

9.1.2 Life-Cycle Cost Considerations

9.2 Project Phase 2 (PPH 2)

9.2.1 Life-Cycle Cost Calculations

9.2.2 Soil Survey

9.2.3 Cost Estimate/Calculation

9.3 Project Phase 3 (PPH 3)

9.3.1 Cost Quotation

9.3.2 Determination of Construction Time

9.3.3 Bid Analysis – In-Depth Bid Assessment

9.3.4 Contract Award Decision

9.4 Project Phase 4 (PPH 4)

9.4.1 Trend Analysis

9.5 Project Phase 5 (PPH 5)

9.6 Portfolio Management

9.6.1 Basics

9.6.2 Task

9.6.3 Modeling

9.6.4 Calculation and Interpretation of Results

9.6.5 Benefit for the Client

9.7 Summary

9.8 References

10 Worked Examples – Contractor

10.1 Project Phase 1 (PPH 1)

10.2 Project Phase 2 (PPH 2)

10.3 Project Phase 3 (PPH 3)

10.3.1 Quantity Uncertainties/Combined Pricing

10.3.2 Macro-Analysis of Number of Workers

10.3.3 Calculation of Number of Required Pieces of Construction Equipment

10.3.4 Register of Chances and Risks

10.3.5 Determination of Construction Time

10.3.6 Rough Process Comparison

10.3.7 Rough Estimation of Stocking Quantities^29)

10.3.8 Costing (Zero-Base Approach)

10.3.9 Assessment of Costing Risk

10.3.10 Bid Pricing

10.4 Project Phase 4 (PPH 4)

10.4.1 Logistics/Number of Transport Cycles

10.4.2 Coordination of Equipment Chains

10.4.3 Compaction Performance in Earthworks

10.4.4 Method Selection

10.4.5 Construction Process Planning

10.4.6 Stocking of Construction Materials

10.4.7 Aggregation of Losses of Productivity

10.4.8 Determination of Stocking Quantities

10.4.9 Procurement Optimization

10.4.10 Trend Analyses

10.4.11 Weather Impact

10.4.12 Determination of Additional Costs

10.5 Project Phase 5 (PPH 5)

10.6 Project Portfolio Management across all Phases

10.6.1 Basics

10.6.2 Task

10.6.3 Modeling

10.6.4 Calculation and Interpretation of Results

10.6.5 Benefit for the Contractor

10.7 Summary

10.8 References

Figures

Tables

Index

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Tags: Christian Hofstadler, Markus Kummer, Chances, Risks, Construction Management