Emerging Economies and the Global Financial System Post Keynesian Analysis 1st Edition by Bruno Bonizzi, Annina Kaltenbrunner, Raquel Ramos 036770059X 9780367700591

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ISBN 10: 036770059X

ISBN 13: 9780367700591

Author: Bruno Bonizzi, Annina Kaltenbrunner, Raquel A. Ramos

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the financial integration of emerging economies through an in-depth analysis of the international monetary system, how it impacts capital flows and exchange rates, and its implications for policy making. The financial integration of emerging economies has been a remarkable development of the past two decades. The growth of cross-border transactions and asset ownership, not least through the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, has put many of these countries in a more prominent, if still peripheral, position within the global financial system. This has not been a smooth process, as integration has been marked by cyclical waves of capital flows, with financial and currency instability often accompanying the acute phases of these cycles. While conventional economic theory traditionally sees financial integration as a positive development, Post-Keynesian economists, working in the tradition of Keynes, Minsky and Kalecki, have long taken a more sceptical viewpoint. By centring the analysis of financial dynamics on concepts as liquidity, uncertainty, balance-sheet structures and institutions, Post-Keynesian theory highlights the intrinsic character of shocks imposed by financial integration upon emerging economies, and their implications for economic growth and distribution. This book demonstrates that these analyses can be fruitfully used to gain a better understanding of financial (in)stability and economic development in emerging economies as they integrate into the global financial system. This work provides key reading for students and scholars of economics, political economy and finance that are interested in the financial integration of emerging economies, and how the heterodox tradition of Post-Keynesian economics contributes to its analysis.

Emerging Economies and the Global Financial System Post Keynesian Analysis 1st Table of contents:

Part I Introduction and background

1 Introduction

The Post Keynesian contribution: A historical overview

Author contributions and plan of the book

Notes

References

2 Two post-Keynesian approaches to international finance: The compensation thesis and the cambist view

Introduction

The compensation thesis

The compensation thesis revisited

The cambist view and covered interest parity

The cambist view revisited

Conclusion

References

3 Trade versus capital flows: The key implicit and methodological differences between the Neoclassical and the Post Keynesian approaches to exchange rate determination

Neoclassical exchange rate theory(ies)

Post Keynesian exchange rate theory

Conclusions

Notes

References

Part II Minsky, balance sheets and cycles

4 A Minskyan framework for the analysis of financial flows to emerging economies

1 Introduction

2 Literature review

3 A Minskyan framework of international financial flows and exchange rate dynamics in EM

4 Applications of a Minskyan view of international financial flows and exchange rates: New forms of external vulnerability and the implications of pension funds investments in EEs

5 Conclusions

Notes

References

5 Post Keynesian and structuralist approaches to boom-bust cycles in emerging economies

Introduction

Business cycles in EMEs: Structural features and stylised facts

Post Keynesian and structuralist approaches to business cycles in EMEs

Models with fixed exchange rates

Real-side focus

Financial-side focus

Models with flexible exchange rates

Real-side focus

Financial-side focus

Discussion and conclusion

Notes

References

6 Cost competitiveness and asset prices as determinants of the current account in emerging economies

Introduction

The determinants of the current account in different theoretical frameworks

Trade-centred approaches

Neo-Kaleckian distribution and growth models

Balance-of-payments constrained growth models

Structuralist models

Finance-centred approaches

Minskyan literature

A synthesis of trade- and finance-centred approaches

Empirical evidence

Empirical evidence for trade-centred channels

Empirical evidence for finance-centred channels

Conclusion

Notes

References

7 Space in Post Keynesian monetary economics: An exploration of the literature

1 Introduction

2 Open-economy, aspatial Keynesian approaches

3 The building blocks of a ‘real space’ approach to Post Keynesian theory

4 Closed-economy spatial Keynesian approaches

5 Open-economy spatial Keynesian approaches

6 Conclusion

Notes

References

Part III Currency hierarchy

8 Evolving international monetary and financial architecture and the development challenge: A liquidity preference theoretical perspective

Introduction and overview

Keynes’ liquidity preference theory in a global setting

The global monetary order envisioned by Keynes

Evolution of the global U.S. dollar order: Finance tamed at first, then (hyper-)globalised

Global financial crisis and its aftermath: The end of an era?

(Hyper-)globalised finance and the developing world: Challenges and options

Notes

References

9 International money, privileges and underdevelopment

1 Introduction

2 Basics of the monetary Keynesian approach

3 A simple monetary Keynesian portfolio model

4 Factors which make a national currency an international one

5 Types of currency hierarchies

6 The future of the world currency system

Notes

References

10 The Post Keynesian view on exchange rates: Towards the consolidation of the different contributions in the ABM and SFC frameworks

Introduction

The PK exchange rate view

Central economies’ exchange rates

Peripheral economies’ exchange rates

Conclusions

References

11 A Post Keynesian framework for real exchange rate determination: An overview

1 Introduction

2 Conventional theories

3 The Post Keynesian framework for exchange rate determination

3.1 Keynes’ and Harvey’s theory and the currency hierarchy model

3.2 Asset choice under uncertainty and the exchange rate

3.3 EME currencies and the hierarchical monetary system

3.4 Empirical findings

4 Real exchange rate, economic growth and exchange rate policy

5 Concluding remarks

Notes

References

Part IV Current account and growth

12 The Kaleckian theory of exchange rates

Introduction

Profits and the exchange rate

Trade-determined exchange rates, economic development and corporate structure

Money capital flows and Fisher effects

Destabilising the world economy

Conclusion

Acknowledgements

Note

References

13 Financial liberalisation, exchange rate dynamics and the financial Dutch disease in developing and emerging economies

1 Introduction

2 Portfolio inflows in a two-sector economy with a ‘speculative’ sector

3 Portfolio booms, exchange rate appreciation and medium-term financial cycles in developing and emerging countries

3 Long-run damages of temporary financial booms in developing countries

5 Some concluding policy implications

Notes

References

14 Global financial flows in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: A survey

1 Introduction

2 The (net) capital account makes its entry

3 External debt sustainability and devaluations

4 External flows and financial instability

5 Gross financial flows, income distribution and growth

Notes

References

Part V Policy implications

15 Implications of modern money theory on development finance

Introduction

A critical examination of the mainstream approach of development finance

Modern money theory and development finance

Modern money theory

Development banks and development financing

Fiscal spending and employer-of-the-last-resort

Conclusion

Notes

References

16 Monetary sovereignty in the Post Keynesian perspective: In the search of a concept

1 Introduction

2 Monetary sovereignty: A multidisciplinary and controversial subject

3 The MMT concept of monetary sovereignty

3 A Post Keynesian concept of monetary sovereignty

5 Final remarks

Notes

References

17 Dealing with global financial asymmetry: Contributions of regional monetary cooperation between emerging markets and developing countries

1 Introduction: Global financial asymmetries and restricted policy space for emerging markets and developing countries

2 Traditional optimal currency area theory falls short on regional monetary cooperation in EMDC

3 Regional monetary cooperation as a policy tool for reducing economic volatility

3.1 Different forms of regional monetary cooperation

3.2 Reducing transaction costs of intra-regional trade: Regional payment systems

3.3 Enhancing regional shock buffering capacities: Regional financial arrangements

4 Conclusions

Notes

References

18 De-regulation of finance in China and India: A post-Keynesian analysis

The background

China: From market-led reforms during the Deng Xiao Ping regime to the ‘China model’ and ‘new normal’ growth under Xi Jinping

Market-led reforms initiated by Deng Xiao Ping

Changes in leadership since 1992 and deviations from earlier market reforms

Changes in exchange rate management

The volatile stock market

Decelerating growth and financial instability

India: On track of a de-regulated economy since the mid-Eighties

Deregulated finance is no panacea for growth via efficient markets

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