US Grand Strategy in the 21st Century The Case For Restraint Routledge Global Security Studies 1st Edition by Trevor Thrall, Benjamin Friedman ISBN 9781138084537 1138084530

1 National interests, grand strategy, and the case for restraint

Alternative grand strategies

Restraint

The prospects for restraint

Road map of the book

Notes

References

Part I The myths of liberal hegemony

2 It’s a trap!: Security commitments and the risks of entrapment

The debate over engagement

The logic of entrapment

When and how does entrapment manifest

Timing entrapment

Goal entrapment

Means entrapment

Entrapment and strategy

Structure and entrapment

Multipolarity

Bipolarity

Unipolarity

The United States, the unipolar era, and the risk of entrapment

China, Asia, and the risks of entrapment

Conclusion

Notes

References

3 Primacy and proliferation: Why security commitments don’t prevent the spread of nuclear weapons

The causes of nuclear proliferation

Nuclear tipping points

Against the grain: new work on security motives and tipping points

A strategic theory of nuclear proliferation

Tipping points as self-defeating prophecy

Implications for primacy as a non-proliferation measure

Conclusions

References

4 Restraint and oil security

Oil market resilience: no need for deep engagement

Supply, demand, and the price of oil

Political risk and cartels

The market response to political-military shocks

The empirical record of political-military oil supply disruptions

Does market response rely on US grand strategy?

Hegemonic stability theory and the oil market

The US military in the Persian Gulf

Conclusion

Notes

References

5 Does spreading democracy by force have a place in US grand strategy?: A skeptical view

The debate about intervention and the spread of democracy

Critical evaluation

A theory of foreign-imposed regime change and democratization

Conditions favorable to democracy

Intervener strategy

Summary and hypotheses

Research design

Coding democratization

Defining and coding foreign-imposed regime change

Control variables

Accounting for selection effects with matching

Analysis and results

FIRC and democratization: a matched analysis

The conditional effect of institutional FIRC on democratization

Foreign-imposed regime change under the Obama administration

Conclusion

Notes

References

6 The tyrannies of distance: Maritime Asia and the barriers to conquest

The shrinking world

Access denied

No-one’s world: negotiating power in an unconquerable Asia

Conclusion

Notes

References

Part II The politics and policy of restraint

7 Not so dangerous nation: US foreign policy from the founding to the Spanish–American War

The Founders’ vision

The four ur-texts of the Washingtonian (or Great Rule) era

The historical record: did the US practice what the Founders preached?

Notes

References

8 The search for monsters to destroy: Theodore Roosevelt, Republican virtu, and the challenges of liberal democracy in an industrial society

The liberal pursuit of “the ineffable splendor of freedom and independence”

Ensuring “the worth of a civilization”: the virtu of the citizen

“The sinews of virtue”

The need for “monsters to destroy”

Staying true to “the traditional policy of the country”

The trumpet’s summons: virtu and the struggle against the common enemies of man

“The age of crusades”

Notes

References

9 Better balancing the Middle East

Growth in America’s Middle East commitments

Mismatch between strategy and interests

The failures of US preponderance in the Middle East

The risks of perpetuating a flawed strategy

A challenging regional environment

Downsizing America’s Middle East commitments

References

10 Embracing threatlessness: US military spending, Newt Gingrich, and the Costa Rica option

Pacifism, isolationism, and comparative risk

Assessing the threats

Major war

Potential major war challenges

The rise of China and the issue of dominance

Russian assertiveness and the economic doomsday machine

Assessing attacks on Taiwan and the Baltic states

Rogue states

Proliferation

Terrorism

Al-Qaeda

Other groups

Responding to terrorism

Policing wars

Protecting allies

International crime

Policing the “global commons”

Cyber

Other issues

Hedging

Concluding reflections

Notes

References

11 Unrestrained: The politics of America’s primacist foreign policy

Primacy’s primacy

Primacy and interest groups

How US military power generates primacy

The allies of primacy

Primacy is a big tent

Sources of restraint

Conclusion: prospects for balance

Notes

References

12 Identifying the restraint constituency

Introduction

Hawk, dove … restrainer?

What is restraint?

Restraint and the literature on foreign policy attitudes

Identifying the restraint constituency

Profiling the restraint constituency

Restraint constituency estimate one: CNN/ORC 2014

Restraint constituency estimate two: Chicago Council on Global Affairs 2014

Who are the Restrainers?

Partisanship and restraint

The correlates/underpinnings of restraint

How restrained is the American public?

The reasonably restrained public

Challenges to restraint

Conclusion: today’s restraint coalition, tomorrow’s restraint constituency

Notes

References

Index